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#162868 - 06/05/12 10:06 PM
Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
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Ninja
Registered: 12/14/02
Loc: Vienna, Austria
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Sorry to be late to start the contest, I forgot that the tournament is already starting this week. Hopefully there'll still be some entries. First round of the Tal Memorial is on Friday (June 8), it's a 10-player single round robin with quite an impressive line-up: Carlsen, Aronian, Kramnik, Radjabov, Caruana, Nakamura, Morozevich, Grischuk, Tomashevsky and McShane. As always, post your predicted scores for all players. Can't find a tournament website in English, but according to the TWIC preview there will be a blitz tournament to decide the draw numbers of the players on Thursday.
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#162873 - 06/06/12 09:09 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: littlefish]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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This is a really strong field! Not only that, it is a fascinating line-up as well. Also, the Sofia rule is in place; no draw offers before move 40(!) Here are my predictions:
Aronian +3
Kramnik +3
Carlsen +2
Nakamura +1
McShane =
Radjabov =
Grischuk -2
Caruana -2
Morozevich -2
Tomashevsky -3
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#162875 - 06/06/12 09:40 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Avalon]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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Maybe I will win by running unopposed ...
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#162879 - 06/06/12 03:13 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Avalon]
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Queen
Registered: 01/09/03
Loc: Sønderborg, Denmark
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I'll give it a try :-)
Magnus Carlsen +3
Levon Aronian +2
Vladimir Kramnik +2
Hikaru Nakamura +1
Teimour Radjabov 0
Alexander Morozevich 0
Fabiano Caruana -1
Alexander Grischuk -1
Evgeny Tomashevsky -2
Luke McShane -4
_________________________
"Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom and a little flower" - Hans Christian Andersen
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#162881 - 06/06/12 04:25 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Petrosianic]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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Haha, Petrosianic. You are still in World Championship mode; draws across the board.
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#162884 - 06/06/12 09:47 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Avalon]
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Queen
Registered: 01/30/06
Loc: Bangalore
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Levon Aronian +3 Magnus Carlsen +2 Hikaru Nakamura +2 Vladimir Kramnik +1 Teimour Radjabov +1 Alexander Morozevich = Fabiano Caruana -1 Alexander Grischuk -2 Evgeny Tomashevsky -3 Luke McShane -3 Eagerly looking forward to some top quality 'fighting' chess that was missed in some of the recent events. Go Carlsen Go, Go Aronian Go, Go Kramnik Go and whoever has to Go, Go ! 
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#162885 - 06/07/12 12:25 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Instant karma]
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King
Registered: 05/08/04
Loc: Austin, USA
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Aronian, Carlsen, Grischuk +2
Nakamura, Kramnik +1
Radjabov, Caruana =
Tomashevsky -2
McShane, Morozevich -3
_________________________
Michael Langer
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#162887 - 06/07/12 10:41 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: kalten]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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Well Carlsen made pretty quick work of McShane in the first round of the blitz, and Nakamura did the same to Fabiano using the Trompowsky. Good times, and live HD video here: http://video.russiachess.org/view/1219Approaching the end of blitz, Moro and Carlsen are on top. Kramnik is 0.5/6 (!) and in last place.
Edited by Avalon (06/07/12 11:40 AM)
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#162889 - 06/07/12 03:00 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: littlefish]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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Well, the aftermath has left us with a pretty big first round! The favorites all seem to clash in the first round: Carlsen vs. Kramnik, and Aronian vs. Nakamura.
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#162891 - 06/07/12 05:58 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: littlefish]
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Ninja
Registered: 03/20/03
Loc: Hyderabad
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there will be a blitz tournament to decide the draw numbers of the players on Thursday. Chessbase have called the organizers cheapo for this. (That too by misspelling it as Chapeau.)
_________________________
The fellow who thinks he knows it all is especially annoying to those of us who do.
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#162892 - 06/07/12 06:11 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: proloy]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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If it isn't too late..
Magnus Carlsen +2
Levon Aronian +1
Vladimir Kramnik 0
Hikaru Nakamura +2
Teimour Radjabov 0
Alexander Morozevich 0
Fabiano Caruana -2
Alexander Grischuk 0
Evgeny Tomashevsky -1
Luke McShane -2
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#162898 - 06/08/12 04:03 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: PircAlert]
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Queen
Registered: 02/17/05
Loc: Norway
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Still about 3 hours until start of the first round.
Magnus Carlsen +2
Levon Aronian +1
Vladimir Kramnik +1
Hikaru Nakamura -1
Teimour Radjabov +1
Alexander Morozevich +1
Fabiano Caruana -1
Alexander Grischuk +1
Evgeny Tomashevsky -2
Luke McShane -3
_________________________
The joy of creating.
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#162901 - 06/08/12 07:44 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Akselborg]
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Ninja
Registered: 12/14/02
Loc: Vienna, Austria
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These are the contest standings after the first round, Excel file here: Pred. Square
error error
1 Akselborg 7,11 5,85
2 Instant Karma 7,56 6,96
3 Rimfaxe 7,78 6,94
4 littlefish 7,78 6,99
5 kalten 7,78 7,33
PircAlert 7,78 7,33
7 Petrosianic 8,00 8,00
8 Avalon 8,22 7,88
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#162939 - 06/11/12 09:00 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: littlefish]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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Round three had some great games! McShane's exchange sacrifice, extreme time trouble, and ultimate mate in 10 victory over Aronian is probably the game of the tournament so far, though there are many yet to go. Another contender is the wacky Grischuk - Morozevich game. Really fun stuff; amazing how that white rook ended up trapped on h7 behind a black pawn!
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#162940 - 06/11/12 02:06 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Avalon]
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Ninja
Registered: 12/14/02
Loc: Vienna, Austria
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Contest standings after round 3: Pred. Square
error error
1 Akselborg 8,00 9,33
2 Instant Karma 8,67 12,00
3 Rimfaxe 9,33 12,44
4 littlefish 9,33 14,22
5 Avalon 9,33 15,56
6 PircAlert 10,00 14,00
Petrosianic 10,00 14,00
8 kalten 11,33 20,00
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#162977 - 06/17/12 03:51 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: inky.]
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Ninja
Registered: 12/14/02
Loc: Vienna, Austria
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Oops, just noticed that I've posted the previous contest standings in the wrong thread. Maybe a moderator can move them? These are the standings after round 8: Pred. Square
error error
1 Petrosianic 8,00 12,00
2 Akselborg 11,33 22,07
3 PircAlert 13,11 31,56
4 Instant Karma 16,22 41,63
5 kalten 16,67 35,11
6 Rimfaxe 16,67 40,05
7 littlefish 18,00 41,43
8 Avalon 18,00 46,77
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#162978 - 06/17/12 04:31 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: littlefish]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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Contest standings after round 5: Pred. Square
error error
1 Akselborg 9,11 12,96
2 Instant Karma 10,44 21,85
3 Rimfaxe 11,56 20,12
4 littlefish 11,56 24,69
5 Petrosianic 12,00 20,00
6 PircAlert 12,44 22,22
7 Avalon 12,67 30,25
8 kalten 13,56 35,56(Note: Duplicated from Tal memo round 5 thread)
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#162979 - 06/17/12 04:33 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: PircAlert]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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With 5 players at +1, 3 at -1 and one at = Petrosianic's prediction is starting to look good. Standings after round 7: Pred. Square
error error
1 Akselborg 9,11 12,52
2 Petrosianic 10,00 12,00
3 Instant Karma 10,89 20,30
4 Rimfaxe 11,78 19,09
5 PircAlert 12,22 18,22
6 littlefish 12,44 23,06
7 kalten 13,78 29,11
8 Avalon 14,00 29,28(Note: LF, move will pull all replies to the post so I copied and duplicated the individual posts here.)
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#162980 - 06/17/12 04:38 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: PircAlert]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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These are the standings after round 8: Pred. Square
error error
1 Petrosianic 8,00 12,00
2 Akselborg 11,33 22,07
3 PircAlert 13,11 31,56
4 Instant Karma 16,22 41,63
5 kalten 16,67 35,11
6 Rimfaxe 16,67 40,05
7 littlefish 18,00 41,43
8 Avalon 18,00 46,77(Note: Duplicate post.)
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#162991 - 06/18/12 10:03 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: inky.]
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King
Registered: 05/08/04
Loc: Austin, USA
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PircAlert jinxed Fabiano. 
_________________________
Michael Langer
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#162998 - 06/18/12 02:47 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: kalten]
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Ninja
Registered: 12/14/02
Loc: Vienna, Austria
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We have a shared first place in the prediction contest, congratulations to the winners Akselborg and Petrosianic! Final standings: Pred. Square
error error
1 Petrosianic 8,00 12,00
Akselborg 8,00 12,00
3 PircAlert 10,00 22,00
4 Rimfaxe 14,00 28,00
kalten 14,00 28,00
6 Instant Karma 14,00 32,00
7 littlefish 16,00 30,00
8 Avalon 18,00 42,00So Petrosianic's all-zero prediction did very well thanks to the close and somewhat surprising tournament outcome. Actually that stunt has been done before by FBX, who even took clear first in this contest.
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#162999 - 06/18/12 04:47 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: littlefish]
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Rook
Registered: 02/20/08
Loc: Washington, DC
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Nice job guys! Not my tournament, I guess :-p
_________________________
I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation.
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#163002 - 06/18/12 05:33 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Avalon]
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Ninja
Registered: 03/20/03
Loc: Hyderabad
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The complete nonchalance with which Magnus wins these supertournaments is unbelievable.
_________________________
The fellow who thinks he knows it all is especially annoying to those of us who do.
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#163004 - 06/18/12 05:45 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: proloy]
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Ninja
Registered: 12/28/02
Loc: Dallas, TX
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Carlsen wins by never losing it seems. His rating will set a record if he keeps this up.
Edited by FirebrandX (06/18/12 05:45 PM)
_________________________
What would Rybka do?
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#163013 - 06/19/12 08:39 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: inky.]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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Yes he is, pircalert. My bad for not coming here more often. inky, yes you should. He lost in the final round but not too bad!! Kalten - You shouldn't be telling that in front of inky.  He finished at the bottom in blitz and added to the reasoning that the law of averages would soon catch up made me put him below this time. Fab is no Anand for law of averages to cease to exist anyway. I have a new favorite now (Masha!). I'm sure inky will love her.
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#163014 - 06/19/12 08:41 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: PircAlert]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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Congrats to winners Akselborg and to our surprise entry Petro on his first contest??!!!
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#163049 - 06/22/12 06:14 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: inky.]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/01/04
Loc: USA
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inky, she is charming and gotto be smart as his father is smart, and most importantly the look you best described it! Will be away for a week so later.
_________________________
Men make counterfeit money; in many more cases, money makes counterfeit men (read world champions!)
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#163062 - 06/26/12 05:59 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Petrosianic]
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Ninja
Registered: 03/20/03
Loc: Hyderabad
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running them through a full analysis in Fritz. They are great games, but I'm seeing a disturbing number of ?? moves on the winner's side already.
The moves should be evaluated against the backdrop of the clock situations of both the players, as well as the rating differences. Let's see if even Fritz refutes them in the time available during the game. Even Tal may never have played them if he had the privilege of doing overnight analysis, even if left to his own resources, or against a known stronger player.
_________________________
The fellow who thinks he knows it all is especially annoying to those of us who do.
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#163063 - 06/26/12 10:50 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Petrosianic]
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King
Registered: 04/29/03
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Speaking of Tal, I'm doing something I've dreaded doing for a while, but finally decided to do anyway: Taking all the games from Selected Chess Games of Mikhail Tal, and running them through a full analysis in Fritz. They are great games, but I'm seeing a disturbing number of ?? moves on the winner's side already. I can hardly wait to compare this analysis with the stuff in the book.
That's why I think computers are just destroying chess. There is this sense of "absolute truth" that computer analysis brings to the game. Now everyone fires up their computer and goes "They were flawed ... " It's kind of like the effect photography had on painting. It's not a comment about you Petro - you have a deep interest in chess, you are a great fan and amazingly knowledgeable and appreciative of the history of the game. It's more of a general whining about the philosophy/attitude towards judging a game. Is it a game or a science? If it is a game then there must be an element of gamesmanship. If it is a "science" - then why do we even have matches and tournaments? Just thinking out loud. I didn't even mention boxing
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#163064 - 06/27/12 08:24 AM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Quasimodo]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/31/04
Loc: Doo-Wah-Diddy, Mississippi
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Now everyone fires up their computer and goes "They were flawed ... "
Yeah, but even in Tal's lifetime, this was known. For example: Petrosian returned from Yugoslavia, his head filled with Tal's play. The new challenger had given him much to think about. For instance, in two games with Smyslov, Tal beyond all shadow of doubt incorrectly sacrificed pieces. One of these games Tal won, the other ended in a draw. 1½ points from two lost games! By sacrificing these pieces Tal created, admittedly at great risk to himself, positions where everything was 'hanging*, where threats blossomed now on this part of the board, now that; positions which Smyslov did not enjoy playing in. The books just don't emphasize the negative part. In a book about Tal, the author isn't going to say "Tal was lost here, but here's how he gets out of it", even if the best players knew it at the time. Even Tal himself said that the difference between Lasker and himself is that while people said Lasker was lost in about half of his games, that Tal was lost in all of his.
_________________________
"I brought the Atom Bomb. I think it's a good time to use it." -- Dr. Richard Gordon, King Dinosaur
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#163065 - 06/27/12 02:10 PM
Re: Tal Memorial 2012 - Prediction contest
[Re: Petrosianic]
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Ninja
Registered: 08/31/04
Loc: Doo-Wah-Diddy, Mississippi
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So I'm ambivalent on the whole computer thing. As a spectator, you don't want to know how the trick is done, but as a player, if Tal wins with unsound attacks, you want to learn how to meet those kind of attacks if you play against them yourself.
This gives me an idea for a thread called Tal's Unsound Attacks, featuring games where he played unsound attacks that worked, and figure out why they worked. The quote above tries to explain how it worked on Smyslov by creating certain types of positions that he didn't play at 100% in. Geller racked up his score against Fischer in a similar way.
_________________________
"I brought the Atom Bomb. I think it's a good time to use it." -- Dr. Richard Gordon, King Dinosaur
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