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Outsiders On Top In Dortmund

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Gustafsson and Nepomniachtchi are tied for first with Leko after four rounds in Dortmund with three rounds to play. They're only on +1, so anything can still happen. Mamedyarov, Kramnik, and Naiditsch are a half-point back. Nepomniachtchi's win over van Wely was the only decisive game of the 4th round. Leaders meet in the fifth round with Leko taking the white pieces against Nepo. van Wely will try to find something sharp against Gustafsson to get out of the cellar.

Round 5: Mamedyarov-Kramnik, Ivanchuk-Naiditsch, Leko-Nepomniachtchi, van Wely-Gustafsson.


Van Wely just lost in 18 moves. He played the Marshall Gambit (the d-pawn version), and didn't seem to get anything for his 2 pawns. So, he stays in the cellar, and Jan leads the tournament once again.

Gustafsson will definitely have earned his tag if he can hold his lead for the next two rounds

I think Gustafsson has earned his tag already! The worst that can happen to him is that he finishes on 50% - and who would have been willing to bet on that before the tournament?

"van Wely will try to find something sharp against Gustafsson to get out of the cellar."
a better version would be "van Wely will try to find something bizarre against Gustafsson to get deeper in the #$%& he's into..."

he definetely succeed...

the Bf3-Be2 idea looks really bad.

And the next World Champion is ... Jan Gustafsson?!

Gustafsson...the lowest rated player in the tornament, no less. I can't remember a recent tournament of this quality where the underdog won. Of course, I doubt he can hold it for two more rounds, but it would be quite a surprise.

Naiditsch himself won in 2005; roughly comparable to Gustafsson's upset in the making?

Geez i can have as many if not more decisive results (loses) as Van Vea to win or draw thanksky, I will be waiting for my invites as I promise not to win or draw thanks - Jackson

SIC van weakly ...sorry my internet connection gave out. Peace out.

Kramnik just lost again in the Petroff to make an overall minus score. Ivanchuk beat him in the same variation that Naiditsch won in; the line with ...Bg4/...Bxf3/...Nxd4.

Aerosvit 2008: Ivanchuk loses to Carlsen in round one. Carlsen wins the tournament. Ivanchuk finishes second.

Dortmund 2008: Ivanchuk loses to Leko in round one. Leko wins the tournament. Ivanchuk finishes equal second.

Two points:

1) Ivanchuk should figure out some way to miss round one.

2) Players should bribe organizers into getting paired with Ivanchuk in round one.

Indeed Ivanchuk is by far the best player this year outside of round 1 of tournaments!

Ivanchuk is now second on virtual rating list, Kramnik drops to 6th:

1 Anand 2798
2 Ivanchuk 2791.5
3 Carlsen 2791.1
4 Morozevich 2788
5 Topalov 2777
6 Kramnik 2772.9
7 Leko 2746

Within a month or so Kramnik has dropped from clear second to 6th, but that is due to the rise of the others as well as his slight drop.

Kramnik lost 16 points in a 7-round tournament -- that's no "slight drop"

LOL great point Fritz....hes dropping like a rock...after Anand (i got -110 for 11,000) crushes him he will go away like the coward he is. Anyone want even money in there match up to 10,000 - we can find escrow Kramnik kowards...LOL

Current virtual ratings make Kramnik a 26-point underdog to Anand, from which Elo would predict Anand to win their 12-game match by less than 6.5 to 5.5.

But Elo ratings have lately done a poor job of predicting WC results:

In October 2000, Kramnik was a 77-point ratings underdog to Kasparov.

In October 2006, Kramnik was a 63-point underdog to Topalov.

Although going by results you have to say Kramnik's tournament results are better than his match results, Kramnik did have one outstanding match. Perhaps he can repeat that achievement. I certainly hope Anand doesnt underestimate Kramnik and his formidable talent for preparation. Never mind the Petroff losing twice, Kramnik will have a few surprises in store for the match.

In world championship matches the higher rated player tends to do worse than expected and vice versa:

Kramnik was lower rated against Kasparov and Topalov and did better than expected.
Leko tied with Kramnik despite being lower rated.
Kasparov lost rating points in his matches against Anand and Short.
Karpov, the lower rated player, did better than expected in his matches with Kasparov.
Fischer lost rating points in his match with Spassky.
The one exception to this rule since ELO rankings began in 1970 was the Karpov demolition of Korchnoi in 1981.

So I make that 12/13 times under-estimating the underdog.

In the coming match as their ratings are so close- unless Kramnik drops his rating further or Anand rises before the match- the only way to continue the pattern is for Kramnik to atleast tie the match since he is not that much rated lower than Anand and very short match.

However I hasten to add that this is likely to be the closest rating-wise whereas most of the other cases there was a big/moderate rating difference and many more games so that the higher rated player might win the match clearly and still lose rating points.


Nice post.

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    This page contains a single entry by Mig published on July 4, 2008 9:06 AM.

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