From Luke McShane across the pond:
Just had a quick browse through your latest blog post... I was intrigued by this bit: "(Impress me by finding a top player with a higher move average in drawn games with white, one of my odd-but-effective fighting chess metrics. Pono's is 44, Nakamura's 45. Topalov and Grischuk, other well-known fighters, also hit 45.)"
Well admittedly I haven't joined the 2750 posse but I was still curious about my own stats. I checked TWIC back to 2009, and barring a fat finger (I only spent 2 minutes checking) my average over 34 games to March 2011 clocks in at... 56.62!
I get the same 56 for him using the same filter I used on the others. Wow! A difference of 5-6 moves is substantial and his is 15 moves above the elite average of 41. 34 games is a small sample, but still, 56 must be some sort of record. Kudos to McShane, and maybe a Valium. Maybe we could have an annual Fighting Chess award based on this or some combination of metrics.
[Funny, as I was writing this chess metrics guru Jeff Sonas posted a database analysis of dozens of players using this metric in the comments to my previous post. Bologan tops the chart with 51, backing up his anecdotal reputation as a fighter. McShane didn't make his list due to small sample size, but he still gets top honors by a mile. But what's the average white draw length of that 2650+ crowd, Jeff, just so we have a mental baseline? My quick and dirty check on only a dozen players and only using games from 2008-present was 41, if I recall correctly.]
Sofia-style rules are increasingly common these days. That's a great thing, but they do sort of distort my metric, at least for historical comparisons. I could always bring back the Chicken Factor. That was the value of each player's remaining pieces minus the number of moves, with a more complex version with modifiers for color and rating differential. There are always going to be glaring individual game exceptions, of course (e.g. short, sharp repetitions), but with a decent-sized sample it's quite revealing. We just need a Chicken Factor app that will process a PGN file automatically since doing it game by game is too laborious to ever be useful. And it probably needs a new name to make it sound more serious and more positive. The Larsen Score? I bet we could rustle up a few hundred bucks to pay a dev to make such an app for us.
The greatest chicken-factor WCC match of all time:
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/ezsearch.pl?search=karpov-kasparov+%2784
The greatest chicken-factor WCC games of all time:
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1252046
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1252052
i dont care for the sofia rules. i am against any rule which would force a player to continue on playing. there are positions which are draw positions after less than 35 or 30 moves, and draw is a perfectly valid outcome in chess.
perhaps more important for the whole sofia rule argument [both for and against it] are positions which are not draw, but the players agreed to it because of special circumstances.
this game comes to mind:
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1125877
Benko agreed to a draw not because he thought the position equal, but because he had only 7 sec left to make it to move 40.
but going back to the reason why the sofia rule was invented, games like the last grischuk - aronian game in kazan, demonstrate that something needs to be done.
Good call on the chicken factor WCC match, Greg, but you missed what is clearly the greatest chicken factor game:
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1432857
Just to backpedal the thread to drawn-move-average with white for a minute, I was playing at the Mechanics Institute in San Francisco last year when Dan Naroditsky showed up to sign copies of his 'new' book, and in the question and answer session after his lecture, I asked him if he knew why Luke McShane was reaching such a high average move count in his games, and Daniel, who was quite aware of Luke's stats said, "Yea, I don't know, I guess he's fighting pretty hard in his games."
No kidding. McShane and Carlsen are two dudes you don't want to assume will grant you an endgame pass.
Jeff's metric allows us to see who some of the other fighters are.
Interesting that fighting can be defined in the means of drawing, and be it such a clever metric as number of moves, etc. etc.
It completely leaves out the players who fought AND won, which to my opinion is the even greater "fighting feat".
So you have a high fighting index because you have a lot of long, drawn games with white.
But if you have many long, won games with white, because you fought, that does not enter the index.
Talk about flawed!
Statistics are one thing, but it doesn't hurt to look at the underlying raw data. McShane's "pole position" is partly due to three games lasting more than 100 moves. Twice he had to defend rook vs. rook + bishop (which doesn't say much about HIS fighting spirit, maybe about the opponent's). In the third game at the Olympiad against Elsness, not much happened between move 80 and 127 when they shook hands - a la Shipov "two Bedouines wandering through the desert", in that case a polar desert? ,:)
I do not question McShane's fighting spirit, but this particular metrics and his big edge above the rest.
In line with the "common sense" suggestion, I made another exercise on chessgames.com: checking the career number of games lasting more than 80 moves for a few players. This threshold is obviously as arbitrary as anything else, and career lengths, total number of games, strength of opposition, number of rapid and blitz games included differ between players. Anyway:
Kamsky 58 games (+14=28-16)
Nakamura 50 games (+14=25-11)
Bologan 45 games (+19=22-4)
Ponomariov 45 games (+10=26-9)
Anand 42 games (+14=21-7)
Kramnik 39 games (+12=21-6)
Topalov 36 games (+7=22-7)
McShane 33 games (+9=16-8)
It seems that Bologan is by far the most successful fighter!?
They agreed to an early draw so the spectators were cheated.
This is incorrect.
The "show" is not about one game. The "show" is THE MATCH. And it runs over several days. It's not Broadway. Deal with it.
(And there are several matches going on at the same time, more than enough chess.)
Ah, the Chicken Factor. That brings me back to the old days when Mig still used numbers on his blog. Please, bring it back. Is there any other “sport” where the players can just agree to stop playing?
I apologize for twisting the discussion into unresearched territory, where I now twist in the wind. One thing about your research, however: there are players on the list that were/are more prolific in general, or have had longer careers. Two of the players quit playing for some amount of time. And then, of course, there are age differences.
It's another mathematical exercise to come up with numbers based on # of games, type of games, strength of opposition, etc...
The average for the 2650+ crowd appears to be 43 moves per white draw; it is 36 for the 2400+ crowd. It is true that the average can get skewed by a few really long games, so I think it perhaps makes more sense to look at what percentage of your white draws last 40+ moves. Here are all 76 players who had 25 or more drawn games with White between 2004-Jan and 2008-Dec, considering only games played when they had a rating of 2650+, and the percentage shown below is what percentage of their white draws lasted 40+ moves:
81%: Cheparinov
74%: Bologan
71%: Wang Yue
67%: Azmaiparashvili
64%: PolgarJ
63%: Areshchenko, Timofeev
62%: Kamsky, Sargissian
61%: Inarkiev, Navara
60%: Najer, Malakhov
58%: Beliavsky, Naiditsch, Carlsen
57%: Nakamura, Milov
56%: Short, Topalov
55%: Onischuk, Nielsen, Sasikiran
54%: SokolovI
53%: Bu, Morozevich, van Wely
52%: GurevichM, Harikrishna
51%: Jakovenko, Volokitin
50%: Bruzon
49%: Bareev, Kasimdzhanov
48%: Krasenkow, GeorgievKir, Shirov, Aronian
47%: Karjakin
46%: Ni Hua, Gashimov, Ivanchuk
45%: Adams
44%: Movsesian, Ponomariov, Vallejo
43%: Mamedyarov
42%: Grischuk, Tkachiev, Kramnik
41%: Tiviakov, Rublevsky
40%: Sutovsky, Dreev, Bacrot
39%: Karpov, Alekseev, Akopian
38%: Anand, Khalifman, Leko, Lautier
36%: Nikolic
35%: Roiz, Svidler, Eljanov
34%: Radjabov
33%: Motylev
32%: Gelfand, Almasi
30%: Zvjaginsev
29%: Sakaev, Smirin, Dominguez
28%: Nisipeanu, Moiseenko
Yep, my statistics are as questionable as the initial ones ,:) and I had mentioned the caveats. Forgive me that I cannot or don't want to go into the level of detail required for a scientific paper: checking hundreds of games individually and trying to find out who was actually playing for a win - based on my own (limited) chess understanding or, in some cases, based on who deviated from a threefold repetition. As I hinted before: it doesn't mean much for anyone's fighting spirit if you have to defend an inferior endgame, only the result means something in terms of fighting abilities.
A rather easy exercise is to normalize against total number of games in the database, which - again - changes the rankings a bit. I include two more names, how could I forget them yesterday?
Nakamura 50 games out of 758 - 6.6%
McShane 33/540 - 6.1%
Kamsky 58/1178 - 4.9%
Carlsen 52/1272 - 4.1% +19=24-9
Bologan 45/1087 - 4.1%
Ponomariov 45/1196 - 3.8%
Leko 55/1734 - 3.2% +12=26-17
Topalov 36/1662 - 2.2%
Kramnik 39/2204 - 1.8%
Anand 42/2523 - 1.7%
BTW, I completely ignore color distribution - because once the position is roughly equal it doesn't matter any more. Bologan still is "the most successful fighter" - this was in response to "common sense" (in the given case, but not at all earlier occasions, I can 'endorse' his handle). Most surprising to me is that Leko is a relatively poor fighter.
Wang Yue is among the greatest fighters - I would say mostly because he has to suffer in the chinese internal tourneys - which, by the way, are quite tough...
Sutovsky, a notory creative player, seems to underestimate his chances with white (or so the statistics say...)
Of course sometimes statistics are very accurate: Zvjaginsev, for example, understandbly stands very close to the bottom in this "fighters rank"...
Congrats Luke...you may now go into the pantryand have some biscuits...oh and pat yourself on the back as often as you like.
Great article, although it looks like your predictions just got tossed out the window as Kamsky beat Topalov, Grischuk pulled it out vs Aronian, and Kramnik came back from the verge of tiebreaker defeat to crush the youngest of the bunch Radjabov. The Chicken Metric definitely appears to be a solid measure, maybe it could be suggested to a few tournament organizers as an extra prize (similar to a brilliancy prize, but more of a ballsy prize?)
Filtering for longish draws is not perfect, but it makes sense. Apparently, understanding why that is the case appears to require uncommon sense, which is even rarer than common sense.
A win may have occurred because of home preparation, not because of a player's fighting spirit. I think a longish draws (which is what Mig & Jeff are using as a filter) have a higher correlation with fighting spirit than any other set of games that are selected based on a simple filter. A longish draw is correlated with a balanced game, and therefore, is correlated with the fighting spirit of the players.
I am not questioning that the filter they use makes some kind of sense. I just don't think that what they are measuring is fighting spirit.
>"A win may have occurred because of home preparation, not because of a player's fighting spirit.""I think a longish draws (which is what Mig & Jeff are using as a filter) have a higher correlation with fighting spirit than any other set of games that are selected based on a simple filter. A longish draw is correlated with a balanced game, and therefore, is correlated with the fighting spirit of the players."<
I don't want to start a discussion here, but usually a balanced game of chess is correlated with having to fight less for your half point.
Most long drawn games are long and drawn for the simple reason that they were not that balanced, but one player had an edge he tried to exploit.
Just look at the candidates matches, both 1st round and tie breaks, where the result "draw" did not at all imply a balanced game, but rather the opposite.
The problem with statistics is that the methods usually kill information. In the end you come up with one number and you imagine that that number speaks to you.
Which reminds me of a nice anecdote from high school days, when they asked "who is the most mature student of the class" and everyone could fill in a name.
The most surprising answer was "Caressa, her boyfriend is 9 years older".
How is that for a correlation?
(A survey among her boyfriends pals came to the conclusion that he was the most immature, as his girl-friend was 9 years younger).
In closing, I stand by my point that what Mig (and maybe Jeff) are measuring is something, but surely not fighting spirit, as Thomas impressively showed in his first comment.
Maybe it is "work ethic" or "average moves wasted with the white pieces" or something else. Who knows.
It's interesting to note that these measures are only useful as long as they're _not_ tied to any tangible benefits to the players, such as monetary rewards, tournament invites, etc.
As soon as metrics begin to have real-life repercussions, players will immediately begin gaming the system by dragging games out, playing on in dead-drawn positions, etc.
By "balanced" I meant not clearly winning for one side.
Saying it is "surely not fighting spirit" is too sweeping. I don't think we have even agreed on a definition of what it means to have "fighting spirit."
I think we can agree that a longish draw does mean that at least one of the two players did not want to shake hands after 17 moves and go home. You can come up with all kinds of reasons why that was the case - he/she likes wasting moves and/or has a particular work ethic - whatever. I'm saying it is because of something I call fighting spirit.
With McShane it is - at the least - work ethic. He may be missing wins or avoiding losses, but he's on you like a junk yard dog. I don't remember any short draws with him involved, white or black. Maybe Thomas will find a few. Maybe not.
The strain of McShane falls mainly on the playin.
>>>"I don't think we have even agreed on a definition of what it means to have "fighting spirit."<<<
I think that is the gist of the matter. While some (e.g. Mig) interpret "average of moves as white in drawn games" as a measure of "fighting spirit", others may interpret it completely different, maybe as a measurement of "wasted moves with the white pieces", or "inability to evaluate a drawn position" or "average moves of in vain fighting" or something completely different.
The reasons why a game was long and drawn are lost in statistics and surely can't be revived by forming some kind of average.
To my opinion, a subjective impression about who is a fighter and who not, is far more accurate than any statistical figure.
You're asking to get slapped.
;)
offtopic question.
i do not want to support fide, but have to do it automatically, paying an entry-fee to elo rated tourneys. so i get an elo rating.
q: how can i prevent, because of privat reasons, that my rating is shown or found on the fide page, when i am getting inavtive? when is my rating deleted? should they have to do it after ten years inactivity, because of some data regulations? i mean , i have not signed anything with entering the tourney. what can i do, to protect my personal data?????
Something totally off subject... I'm very interested in the music accompanying the video of the 4th round at the European Women's Championship in the Chessbase article from May 6th. Does anyone have any idea what the music is and who is the singer?
Thanks.
Apologies. Meant to say the Chessbase article from May 5th.
YouTube.com links to TV's ""BBC Master Game" shows; finally.
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http://www.youtube.com/user/Sirb0b1
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http://www.youtube.com/user/Sirb0b1#p/a/6D34FA02D4FEBBEC/0/ZkYzzomAvZU
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John Nunn discusses this TV series in his book "Secrets of Grandmaster Chess", page 87 (section 1974-6).
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This is really good to know 'I get the same 56 for him using the same filter I used on the others. Wow! A difference of 5-6 moves is substantial and his is 15 moves above the elite average of 41. 34 games is a small sample, but still, 56 must be some sort of record. Kudos to McShane, and maybe a Valium. Maybe we could have an annual Fighting Chess award based on this or some combination of metrics." thanks for sharing....
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In line with the "common sense" suggestion, I made another exercise on chessgames.com: checking the career number of games lasting more than 80 moves for a few players. This threshold is obviously as arbitrary as anything else, and career lengths, total number of games, strength of opposition, number of rapid and blitz games included differ between players. Anyway:
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People now can learn chess easier. They can play it in computer. Then, the digital game usually has hint.
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